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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model