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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to TB 7, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 9 yards (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model