Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to PHI 13, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 30-C.Clement pushed ob at TB 44 for 43 yards (9-B.Anger). PENALTY on PHI-83-J.Perkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model