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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to PHI 22, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-N.Agholor to PHI 22 for no gain (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP