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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to PHI 22, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-89-G.Sanborn.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.28 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model