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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to TB 46 for 3 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.99 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model