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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYG
38.1%
DAL
61.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.111 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.162 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
DAL 22
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYG

Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle
Tae Davis LB Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Travis Frederick C Out Illness
Xavier Woods S Out Hamstring
Datone Jones DT Out Knee
Randy Gregory DE Doubtful Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 13
–
DAL 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:37 TD DAL (13:37) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-K.Martin]. NYG 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 06:06 FG DAL (6:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 10
  • Q3 10:47 FG DAL (10:47) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 13
  • Q3 04:34 FG NYG (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – DAL 13
  • Q4 05:51 TD DAL (5:51) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – DAL 19
  • Q4 01:32 TD NYG (1:32) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 88-E.Engram for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – DAL 20
  • Q4 00:15 FG NYG (:15) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 13 – DAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 28%

    (10:08) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (6:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:24) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:18) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to NYG 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-30-A.Brown.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:36) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to NYG 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 15-K.Clay to NYG 26 for 5 yards (57-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (10:49) 10-E.Manning up the middle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (99-A.Woods).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:18) 10-E.Manning up the middle to NYG 47 for 1 yard (98-T.Crawford; 50-S.Lee).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (6:36) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to DAL 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 15-K.Clay to NYG 20 for 6 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (10:47) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 97%

    (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 36 for 3 yards (45-R.Smith).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (14:21) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DAL 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Austin to DAL 28 for -2 yards (72-K.Wynn, 31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 41%

    (9:19) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to NYG 44 for 2 yards (52-A.Ogletree).