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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 52

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to DAL 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -3.16 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP