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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model