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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 10-E.Manning up the middle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (99-A.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.85 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model