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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 46

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to NYG 44 for 2 yards (52-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.78 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model