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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 15-K.Clay to NYG 20 for 6 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.56 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model