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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 10

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model