Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 73

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(14:21) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DAL 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Austin to DAL 28 for -2 yards (72-K.Wynn, 31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model