Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- CAR offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to CAR: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.049 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.072 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
DAL
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 08:54 TD CAR (8:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – CAR 6
- Q2 00:07 FG CAR (:07) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. DAL 0 – CAR 10
- Q4 14:16 TD CAR (14:16) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 40-A.Armah up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – CAR 16
- Q4 08:58 TD DAL (8:58) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – CAR 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 46%
(2:24) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CAR 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 18 for 14 yards (48-J.Thomas).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 31%
(14:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to DAL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:33) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CAR 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-D.Byrd to DAL 35 for 30 yards (45-R.Smith).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(7:20) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to CAR 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 30 for 3 yards (48-J.Thomas; 91-L.Ladouceur).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(5:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:55) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to CAR 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-D.Moore to CAR 23 for 15 yards (49-J.Olawale; 35-K.Frazier). PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 23.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%
(8:23) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to CAR 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(6:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (80-I.Thomas).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%
(2:44) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 48 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%
(2:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 15-D.Thompson [90-J.Peppers].
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 21%
(2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.