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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model