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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 46

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to CAR 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP