4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to DAL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model