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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 8 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 15-D.Thompson [90-J.Peppers].

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP