Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 76

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(7:20) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to CAR 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 30 for 3 yards (48-J.Thomas; 91-L.Ladouceur).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model