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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 86

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CAR 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-D.Byrd to DAL 35 for 30 yards (45-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model