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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 16 – Dallas Cowboys 8

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model