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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (80-I.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.12 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model