Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.206 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.043 EPA/dropback
- TEN offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- NE on 6 more days rest than TEN
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 19
TEN
NE
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:20 TD TEN (1:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NE 0
- Q2 13:24 TD NE (13:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. shovel pass TEN 7 – NE 6
- Q2 09:27 TD NE (9:27) (No Huddle) 28-J.White left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 7 – NE 13
- Q2 01:56 TD NE (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 21st career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre, 15). NE 12-Brady 553rd career TD pass (including postseason), passes Favre for 2nd-most all-time (P. Manning 579). TEN 7 – NE 20
- Q3 04:04 TD NE (4:04) 38-B.Bolden up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – NE 27
- Q4 10:26 TD NE (10:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 10th career postseason game with 3 pass TD, most all-time (Montana 9). NE 87-Gronkowski 10th career postseason TD, ties 5 others for 3rd all-time. Extends his NFL record for postseason TD by a TE and his Patriots record postseason TD. NE 87-Gronkowski 835 career postseason rec yds, passes Keith Jackson (834) for 2nd all-time by a TE. TEN 7 – NE 34
- Q4 02:00 TD TEN (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – NE 35
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 26%
(12:43) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:24) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to NE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 12 yards (33-T.Smith, 48-B.Brinkley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%
(6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 13 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:23) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 47, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to TEN 48 for 5 yards (89-P.Supernaw).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 26%
(7:17) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to NE 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-93-L.Guy, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NE 17.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 30%
(:25) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 49 for -5 yards (21-M.Butler, 24-S.Gilmore).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:41) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to NE 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:46) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-59-M.Flowers.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(8:34) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NE 44, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:27) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NE 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NE 19.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:14) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:57) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 29 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 74%
(3:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis ran ob at NE 12 for 17 yards.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 11 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
