4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2018-01-13 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

TEN
20.6%
NE
79.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.206 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.043 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NE on 6 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 16
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

TEN

DeMarco Murray RB Out Knee

NE

Alan Branch DT Questionable Knee
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Knee
Marquis Flowers LB Questionable Illness
Mike Gillislee RB Questionable Knee
Eric Lee DE Questionable Ankle
James White RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14
–
NE 35

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:20 TD TEN (1:20) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 13:24 TD NE (13:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. shovel pass TEN 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 09:27 TD NE (9:27) (No Huddle) 28-J.White left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 7 – NE 13
  • Q2 01:56 TD NE (1:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 21st career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre, 15). NE 12-Brady 553rd career TD pass (including postseason), passes Favre for 2nd-most all-time (P. Manning 579). TEN 7 – NE 20
  • Q3 04:04 TD NE (4:04) 38-B.Bolden up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – NE 27
  • Q4 10:26 TD NE (10:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 10th career postseason game with 3 pass TD, most all-time (Montana 9). NE 87-Gronkowski 10th career postseason TD, ties 5 others for 3rd all-time. Extends his NFL record for postseason TD by a TE and his Patriots record postseason TD. NE 87-Gronkowski 835 career postseason rec yds, passes Keith Jackson (834) for 2nd all-time by a TE. TEN 7 – NE 34
  • Q4 02:00 TD TEN (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – NE 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 26%

    (12:43) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:24) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to NE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 34 for 12 yards (33-T.Smith, 48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 13 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:23) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 47, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to TEN 48 for 5 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 26%

    (7:17) 6-B.Kern punts 31 yards to NE 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-93-L.Guy, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NE 17.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 30%

    (:25) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 49 for -5 yards (21-M.Butler, 24-S.Gilmore).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:41) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to NE 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:46) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-59-M.Flowers.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:34) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NE 44, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:27) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NE 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NE 19.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:14) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to NE 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:57) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 74%

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis ran ob at NE 12 for 17 yards.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.