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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP