Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to NE 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NE 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model