Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 21

(12:41) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to NE 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model