Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 59

New England Patriots 21 – Tennessee Titans 7

(10:46) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-59-M.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.02 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model