Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 7

(11:23) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 47, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-D.Amendola to TEN 48 for 5 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.97 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model