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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 46
Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 21
What Actually Happened
(:25) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 49 for -5 yards (21-M.Butler, 24-S.Gilmore).
The Three Options
GO
+0.74 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.64 EP
- 33% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -1.09 EP
KICK
-0.06 EP
- 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
- 70% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
