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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 57

New England Patriots 35 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model