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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis ran ob at NE 12 for 17 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.25 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP