Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- JAX defense: -0.187 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Ben Roethlisberger in place of Landry Jones)
- PIT on 7 more days rest than JAX
- PIT defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 19
JAX
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:44 TD JAX (10:44) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – PIT 0
- Q1 05:31 TD JAX (5:31) 27-L.Fournette right tackle pushed ob at PIT 1 for 17 yards (21-J.Haden). Jacksonville challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 27-L.Fournette right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – PIT 0
- Q2 11:36 TD JAX (11:36) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-98-V.Williams was injured during the play. JAX 20 – PIT 0
- Q2 08:26 TD PIT (8:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 21 – PIT 6
- Q2 02:33 TD JAX (2:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue) [91-Y.Ngakoue], RECOVERED by JAX-50-T.Smith at 50. 50-T.Smith for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-50-T.Smith, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. JAX 27 – PIT 7
- Q2 00:32 TD PIT (:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 10-M.Bryant for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 28 – PIT 13
- Q3 09:15 TD PIT (9:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 26-L.Bell for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 28 – PIT 20
- Q4 10:39 TD JAX (10:39) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 34 – PIT 21
- Q4 09:14 TD PIT (9:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. JAX 35 – PIT 27
- Q4 04:24 TD JAX (4:24) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 40-T.Bohanon for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 41 – PIT 28
- Q4 02:27 TD PIT (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle to JAX 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 26-L.Bell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 42 – PIT 34
- Q4 01:50 FG JAX (1:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 45 – PIT 35
- Q4 00:04 TD PIT (:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 45 – PIT 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(10:44) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 61%
(9:12) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to JAX 27, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 48%
(7:13) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to PIT 11, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%
(1:12) (Run formation) 26-L.Bell right tackle to JAX 25 for -4 yards (20-J.Ramsey; 97-M.Jackson). PIT-77-M.Gilbert was injured during the play.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 41%
(4:07) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 15.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 36Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 64%
(:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 10-M.Bryant for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:10) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to PIT 19, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 57%
(2:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:55) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 15 yards to JAX 48, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-40-T.Bohanon. Deflected by 20-Golden.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 57%
(12:50) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster. Coverage by 21-Bouye.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 46%
(9:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-21-A.Bouye, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%
(1:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 75 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 89-V.McDonald to PIT 37 for 12 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.