Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

(14:55) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 15 yards to JAX 48, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-40-T.Bohanon. Deflected by 20-Golden.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model