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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP