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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster. Coverage by 21-Bouye.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model