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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 – Jacksonville Jaguars 45

What Actually Happened

(:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 4, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model