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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Run formation) 26-L.Bell right tackle to JAX 25 for -4 yards (20-J.Ramsey; 97-M.Jackson). PIT-77-M.Gilbert was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.66 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model