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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 10-M.Bryant for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP