Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 – Jacksonville Jaguars 45

(1:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 89-V.McDonald to PIT 37 for 12 yards (20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -1.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model