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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 42 – Pittsburgh Steelers 35

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.56 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model