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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Saturday 2018-01-06 · 20:15 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ATL
47.1%
LA
52.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Jared Goff (LA) +0.152 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.162 EPA/dropback (LA starting Jared Goff in place of Sean Mannion)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

ATL

No players on the report.

LA

Mike Thomas WR Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 26
–
LA 13

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:17 FG ATL (7:17) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 01:28 FG ATL (1:28) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 11:40 TD ATL (11:40) 24-D.Freeman up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – LA 0
  • Q2 02:40 TD LA (2:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:08 FG LA (:08) 5-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ATL 13 – LA 10
  • Q3 06:48 FG ATL (6:48) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 16 – LA 10
  • Q3 00:24 FG ATL (:24) 3-M.Bryant 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 19 – LA 10
  • Q4 10:54 FG LA (10:54) 5-S.Ficken 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ATL 19 – LA 13
  • Q4 05:54 TD ATL (5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-Ju.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-C.Barwin]. ATL 25 – LA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to ATL 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-38-C.Davis.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to LA 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to LA 46 for 9 yards (42-D.Riley).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 26%

    (11:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at ATL 10 for 4 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LA 43, Center-47-J.Harris. 24-B.Countess MUFFS catch, touched at LA 30, RECOVERED by ATL-53-L.Reynolds at LA 17. 53-L.Reynolds to LA 17 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds). The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (7:17) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (1:28) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (8:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:54) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to LA 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to LA 21 for no gain (28-T.Ward).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to LA 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to LA 40 for 14 yards (27-D.Kazee). PENALTY on LA-58-C.Littleton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 26.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (9:43) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to LA 20 for 1 yard (52-A.Ogletree).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (6:48) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 38%

    (5:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 63%

    (:24) 3-M.Bryant 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (10:54) 5-S.Ficken 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods ran ob at ATL 7 for 6 yards (21-D.Trufant).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 12-S.Watkins (45-D.Jones) [97-G.Jarrett].

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to ATL 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to ATL 49 for -2 yards (36-K.Ishmael, 53-L.Reynolds).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 40%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 17-R.Woods (44-V.Beasley).