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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ATL 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at ATL 10 for 4 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model