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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 89

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to ATL 47, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to ATL 49 for -2 yards (36-K.Ishmael, 53-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.53 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 89, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model