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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 3-M.Bryant 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model