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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to LA 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to LA 46 for 9 yards (42-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.33 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -3.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -3.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP