Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LA 43, Center-47-J.Harris. 24-B.Countess MUFFS catch, touched at LA 30, RECOVERED by ATL-53-L.Reynolds at LA 17. 53-L.Reynolds to LA 17 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds). The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.32 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -5.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model