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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 5-S.Ficken 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP