Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to LA 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-P.Cooper to LA 40 for 14 yards (27-D.Kazee). PENALTY on LA-58-C.Littleton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 26.

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.74 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model