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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model